BJP gains in Bihar leave ruling grand alliance with food for thought

If the recently concluded Bihar local body elections were presented as a litmus test for the BJP against the combined might of the JD(U) and the RJD, which once again formed a grand alliance last year, it safely passed the test. Did it

Of the 17 municipal corporations in the state, BJP-backed candidates and RJD-JD(U)-backed candidates won six posts each of mayors. The BJP won three of the four major corporations, Patna, Muzaffarpur and Bhagalpur, while the Grand Alliance won Gaya.

The elections were not fought on party symbols, but the candidates were either from within the party or closely associated with a party.

The BJP’s good performance in the civic polls follows its convincing victory in the Gopalganj and Kurhani assembly bypolls, held in November and December 2022, respectively.

Read also: ‘We are a party of OBCs, Dalits and Adivasis’

In Kurhani, a stronghold of the ruling JD(U), BJP’s Kedar Prasad Gupta won by a slim margin of 3,645 votes, while in Gopalganj BJP candidate Kusum Devi defeated RJD’s Mohan Gupta, indicating that the party continues to strengthen its position. Still working. In a state where many analysts were of the view that the JD(U) and RJD coming together would severely limit its scope.

In the 2015 assembly elections, the two parties came together to trounce the BJP, which won only 53 out of 243 seats.

The BJP’s recent electoral victories show that it has been able to expand its voter base, going beyond its traditional dominant-caste constituency to make inroads into the Dalit community, so far firmly behind Chief Minister Nitish Kumar. is from

voter base expansion

Though the BJP lost power in the state in August 2022 after Nitish Kumar went back to the grand alliance, in which the RJD and the Congress are key allies, it could be a blessing in disguise as the party is now free to nibble on Dalit votes. Which was not possible till there was a partnership with JD(U).

The local body elections for 17 Municipal Corporations, two Municipal Councils and 48 Nagar Panchayats in 23 districts were held in two phases on December 18 and December 28. For the first time, the mayor and deputy mayor were directly elected by the public.

Women candidates created history by winning 16 out of 17 mayoral posts, except in Gaya, where Ganesh Paswan won. Chinta Devi, a manual scavenger for decades in Gaya, has won the post of deputy mayor.

Excited BJP

The BJP was upbeat after the results were announced on 30 December and insisted that the “mahagathbandhan of convenience” had been “loved by the people”. Although technically, the results are called a tie, the fact that the BJP contested alone after being dumped by the JD(U) recently, lends some credence to its claims of victory.

Soon after the result was announced, BJP state spokesperson Arvind Kumar Singh told media persons that the result “has given a clear message that people reject the Nitish Kumar-led Grand Alliance”.

The RJD protested, with its spokesperson Mrityunjay Tiwari saying: “Since the elections were not fought on party lines, how can any political party claim individual victory?”

JD(U) spokesperson Ranbir Nandan, on the other hand, highlighted the result, arguing that had it been a state election, “the consolidation of votes would have been stronger”.

However, it is clear that with the BJP getting a free hand to function in Bihar, it is trying its best to replicate the Uttar Pradesh model, where it has managed to win over Dalits and a section of non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs). Added the votes with you. To build dominant-caste vote banks into electorally helpful social alliances, as well as through distribution of soaps, social welfare programs and Hindutva ventures.

In Bihar, Dalit supporters of Nitish Kumar have been at odds with the Yadavs historically patronized by Lalu Prasad, thus raising questions about the transferability of votes. It is social friction that the BJP wants to take advantage of.

For some time now, the RJD and JD(U) in Bihar and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh have been in serious talks of making the caste census the pivot of their politics, in the hope that Mandal 2.0 will successfully stop the Hindutva juggernaut. This view is often confirmed by friends of these parties in the media.

What they forget is that the BJP is no longer the “Brahmin-Bania” party of the late 1980s and early 1990s, and that internal caste competition has made the OBCs anything but a monolithic voter block. made (“Bihar politics sees new turn as new twist”) Nitish Kumar, Tejashwi Yadav join hands, frontlineAugust 26, 2022).

lack of vote transfer

The vexing issue of vote transferability seems to be plaguing the Grand Alliance earlier than expected, as the election results of Gopalganj and Kurhani show.

The interaction with a diverse group of non-Yadav OBCs gave an impression that they allayed deep fears of a re-emergence of Yadav dominance. This fear is shared by Dalit voters as well, and it is an apprehension of voters that the BJP wants to take advantage of to expand its footprint in Bihar.

Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar speaking at a function in Patna on December 31, 2022. Image Credit: PTI

The grand alliance’s less-than-convincing performance in the election has also dented Nitish Kumar’s widely projected ambitions to become prime minister. There have been intermittent communications between Sharad Pawar, Akhilesh Yadav, Uddhav Thackeray, Lalu Prasad, and Mamata Banerjee about the possibility of a national alliance supported by the Congress.

RJD insiders said they were rallying support for Nitish Kumar as the prime ministerial candidate as his vast experience and pro-development image would encourage people to see their alliance as a stable home.

other people

The electoral setback comes at a time when Congress leader Rahul Gandhi is boosting his image with an all-India march and AAP leader Arvind Kejriwal is rekindling doubts about a separate Third Front, indicating that it may is not in sync with the “national interest”. ,

At a public meeting in Nagpur in May 2022, Kejriwal said: “I don’t understand their alliance of 10 or more parties, and an alliance is being formed to defeat someone. [Narendra Modi], I don’t want to defeat anyone, I want the country to win.

Political analysts said the RJD’s inability to create jobs, the main talking point of the RJD in the 2020 assembly elections, was another reason behind the latest defeat.

Read also: BJP’s Pasmanda gamble to challenge the Grand Alliance

In early December, Bihar Police lathi-charged TET and CTET candidates who were protesting against shortage of vacancies. Earlier, in August, soon after Nitish Kumar joined hands with the RJD, police lathi-charged and used water cannons on young protesters demanding jobs. Moreover, Nitish Kumar’s refusal to pay any compensation to the victims of the recent spurious liquor tragedy and his scathing remarks in that context soon put him in bad light.

The BJP in Bihar is also eyeing the Pasmanda Muslim vote, actively campaigning for the Grand Alliance at the grassroots level, allaying apprehensions of the general electorate about caste supremacy and relying solely on the ideological basis of its voter base rather than economic Need to work on front. contribute.

squeeze

• BJP-backed and RJD-JD(U)-backed candidates won six mayoral posts each.

• Women candidates have won 16 out of 17 posts of Mayor.

• The BJP won three of the four major corporations. The saffron party also won the Gopalganj and Kurhani assembly bypolls by the end of 2022.

• Vote transferability troubles the Grand Alliance.

• Meanwhile, non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits fear a re-emergence of Yadav dominance.

• The performance of the Grand Alliance has also dented Nitish Kumar’s ambitions to become the prime minister.